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New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
What do the Mets really need at the trade deadline?
'The ability to imagine is the largest part of what you call intelligence. You think the ability to imagine is merely a useful step on the way to solving a problem or making something happen. But imagining it is what makes it happen.' —'Sphere,' Michael Crichton The trade deadline is as many days away as Ronny Mauricio had hits Sunday night, and the Mets have won seven in a row. Let's get right to it and break down as narrowly as we can what the Mets could really use this week. Advertisement President of baseball operations David Stearns has already singled out center field as the logical area for an offensive upgrade, were the Mets to make one. New York entered Sunday with the second-worst OPS in baseball from the position. The situation in center is tied to the uncertainty the Mets have at second and third base. Jeff McNeil is going to start pretty much every day at second or center, and New York has Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos and Tyrone Taylor as options to fill out the lineup. (Vientos could also see time at designated hitter, depending on the health of Starling Marte and Jesse Winker down the stretch.) In a perfect world, Baty and Mauricio could start against righties, and Vientos and Taylor could start against lefties. But Vientos and Taylor have had poor seasons overall, including against southpaws. That's been a team-wide problem for New York's right-handed hitters. The Mets entered Sunday ranking 20th in baseball in OPS against southpaws; strangely, that's attributable almost entirely to the right-handed hitters in New York's lineup struggling against lefties. The Mets' left-handed hitters have an OPS more than 100 percentage points better against lefties than their righty hitters. So the best fit in center field is someone who handles the position defensively — Stearns has very clearly emphasized that — while excelling against left-handed pitching. Looking at the center-field options, that knocks out the lefty-swinging Jarren Duran (who would probably cost too much to consider anyway) and Cedric Mullins (who has been in a deep slump since the end of April). It leaves three interesting names: Luis Robert Jr., Harrison Bader and Dane Myers. Robert, you know. He hit 38 homers in 2023 and has been terrible ever since. He has been hot lately, and there's a school of thought that a change of scenery would reinvigorate him. If the Mets acquired him, it would be because they want him in center field most days, which would put McNeil at second and leave third base to the trio of Baty, Mauricio and Vientos. There'd be more protection in case one or more of those young players struggled. Advertisement Despite the recent struggles, Robert would require a real return. The closest comparison I can find for him is the Milwaukee Brewers' 2014 trade for Gerardo Parra, which cost the Brewers a recent first-round pick (No. 38 Mitch Haniger) and a starter having a breakthrough year in A-ball en route to being a fringe top-100 prospect (Anthony Banda). The Mets would not want to give up that much. Bader, you know. He was in Queens last year, and his season turned disappointing in part because he didn't hit left-handed pitching as well as he has over his career. He's had a nice year with the Minnesota Twins and an especially hot July. A good comp for a Bader trade is either the Mets' trading Tommy Pham away in 2023 (for Jeremy Rodriguez, whom FanGraphs viewed as a top-100 prospect within a year) or the New York Yankees' trade for Andrew Benintendi in 2022, when a recent first-round pick (No. 38 again) was the key piece going to the Kansas City Royals. Myers, you might not know. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal mentioned him briefly last week. He's a 29-year-old with the Miami Marlins whose defensive metrics grade out well; he has the same number of outs above average as Tyrone Taylor in fewer innings, though he's behind in defensive runs saved. And Myers has hit lefties very well: an .866 OPS for his career, and an .866 OPS this season. Myers is basically having the season the Mets expected out of Taylor, and in that regard, it's not a given he'll outperform him the rest of the way. Myers would come with four additional years of team control, so the Marlins do not need to move him. But he's 29, and Miami has a center-field prospect waiting. I don't have a good comp for a Myers trade. The closest I can come up with is when the Chicago White Sox traded catcher Reese McGuire with three more years of team control to the Red Sox, though for veteran reliever Jake Diekman. A Myers trade would probably include a fringe top-20 prospect in the organization as the headliner, if I'm speculating. Advertisement You wouldn't have known it from this weekend in San Francisco (at least for the first 26 innings), but think back to last year's National League Championship Series. What haunted the Mets' bullpen more than anything? Walks. The bullpen entered Sunday with a 9.3 percent walk rate, the 14th highest in baseball. That's not too bad, right? Well, unfortunately, Max Kranick and his 3.4 percent walk rate won't be part of the calculation. Let's look at six key relievers and their walk rates: (For what it's worth, Brooks Raley has walked two of 14 batters faced this season. His walk rate with the Mets in his last full season in 2023 was 10.6 percent.) That 11.0 percent combined walk rate would be the second-highest in the league. So, what would really help the Mets' pen would be a late-game arm who is stingy with free passes. And the three players who stick out the most in that regard are Minnesota's Griffin Jax (6.8 percent walk rate) and Pittsburgh Pirates teammates David Bednar (6.8 percent) and Dennis Santana (6.0 percent). Jax's relatively low walk rate stands out because he doesn't throw many pitches in the strike zone. He throws fewer than half his pitches in the strike zone (similar to, say, Reed Garrett) while generating an incredible amount of chase on his slider and changeup. (He has the fourth-best chase rate in baseball.) The best comp for a Jax deal is probably Cleveland's deal for Andrew Miller in 2016, which cost it two top-100 prospects (and two other pitchers who made the big leagues). Bednar, a two-time All-Star, has returned to form after being sent down back in April. He relies on his 97 mph four-seamer as well as a curveball and splitter; the curve would be a different look for the bullpen, as almost no one else throws it. Advertisement The best comp for a Bednar deal is another one Pittsburgh made: sending Mark Melancon to the Washington Nationals in 2016 and getting Felipe Vázquez back. Vázquez became an All-Star closer before sexual assault charges ended his major-league career. The difference between Santana and Jax is that Santana still throws a fastball a fair amount of the time, and he throws it in the zone. Santana generates chase (the 13th most in baseball) with his slider. Santana has been especially tough against left-handed hitters, holding them to five hits in 57 at-bats — none of them for extra bases. Santana doesn't strike out hitters the way Jax and Bednar do. Santana could compare to an earlier Pirates trade, when they sent reliever Richard Rodriguez to the Atlanta Braves in 2021 for a young starter in Bryse Wilson. I'd trade for 1999 Shawon Dunston and 2015 Addison Reed. No, I'd basically make these moves in tandem. If the Mets prioritize Robert in center field, they can make a smaller move for the pen with Santana. If they really want Jax, they can do something smaller for Myers in center. If they want to take the middle road, Bader and Bednar work. The Mets finished a sweep of the San Francisco Giants on Sunday to push their winning streak to seven. At 62-44, New York leads the National League East by 1 1/2 games over the Philadelphia Phillies and is within a half-game of the Chicago Cubs and Brewers for the best record in the National League. The San Diego Padres came back over the weekend to split a four-game series in St. Louis and salvage a 5-5 trip to start the second half. San Diego is 57-49 and owns the final NL wild card, one game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds. The Giants, as you may have deduced from above, were swept by the Mets. San Francisco dropped to 54-52 and is now three games behind San Diego for that last wild card. The Pirates come to the Bay for three games before the Giants head east. Advertisement at San Diego RHP Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA) vs. RHP Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA) LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19) vs. RHP Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18) RHP Clay Holmes (9-5, 3.40) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (10-3, 2.81) vs. San Francisco LHP David Peterson (7-4, 2.83) vs. LHP Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.93) RHP Kodai Senga (7-3, 2.00) vs. RHP Carson Seymour (0-0, 3.00) RHP Frankie Montas vs. TBD Red = 60-day IL Orange = 15-day IL Blue = 10-day IL • Paul Blackburn should be back within a week, likely in the bullpen. The Mets don't need a sixth starter again until late August. • Tylor Megill might be back that final week of August to be that sixth starter. Megill should start a rehab assignment soon. • Jose Siri still hasn't restarted a running program, but the Mets still think he should be back at some point this season. Triple A: Syracuse at Buffalo (Toronto Blue Jays) Double A: Binghamton vs. Harrisburg (Washington) High A: Brooklyn vs. Jersey Shore (Philadelphia) Low A: St. Lucie at Jupiter (Miami) • Even after adding Gregory Soto, the Mets should add a setup man • Our trade deadline mailbag answers questions about Clay Holmes, Mark Vientos and more • An overview of the Mets' needs and possible solutions • Intel on how the Mets feel about center field; intel on how others think they'll behave in the pitcher markets • It was a big week for Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty • The Mets should care about every little upgrade • The Athletic's trade deadline big board So, after I found last week's sci-fi novel (Ray Nayler's 'The Mountain in the Sea') lacking a little in the cheap thrills department, I read Crichton's 'Sphere.' It was basically the opposite of Nayler's book: a lot of propulsive plot, though with less currency behind it (and a bit of an anticlimactic ending). Thus concludes my mid-summer interlude into science fiction. The Dunston trade in 1999 worked out. But one for reliever Billy Taylor did not. Which two relievers did the Mets send to the Athletics in return for Taylor? I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments. (Photo of Jeff McNeil: Ishika Samant / Getty Images)
New York Times
a day ago
- Sport
- New York Times
This Week in Mets: What does New York really need at the trade deadline?
'The ability to imagine is the largest part of what you call intelligence. You think the ability to imagine is merely a useful step on the way to solving a problem or making something happen. But imagining it is what makes it happen.' —'Sphere,' Michael Crichton The trade deadline is as many days away as Ronny Mauricio had hits Sunday night, and the Mets have won seven in a row. Let's get right to it and break down as narrowly as we can what the Mets could really use this week. Advertisement President of baseball operations David Stearns has already singled out center field as the logical area for an offensive upgrade, were the Mets to make one. New York entered Sunday with the second-worst OPS in baseball from the position. The situation in center is tied to the uncertainty the Mets have at second and third base. Jeff McNeil is going to start pretty much every day at second or center, and New York has Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Mark Vientos and Tyrone Taylor as options to fill out the lineup. (Vientos could also see time at designated hitter, depending on the health of Starling Marte and Jesse Winker down the stretch.) In a perfect world, Baty and Mauricio could start against righties, and Vientos and Taylor could start against lefties. But Vientos and Taylor have had poor seasons overall, including against southpaws. That's been a team-wide problem for New York's right-handed hitters. The Mets entered Sunday ranking 20th in baseball in OPS against southpaws; strangely, that's attributable almost entirely to the right-handed hitters in New York's lineup struggling against lefties. The Mets' left-handed hitters have an OPS more than 100 percentage points better against lefties than their righty hitters. So the best fit in center field is someone who handles the position defensively — Stearns has very clearly emphasized that — while excelling against left-handed pitching. Looking at the center-field options, that knocks out the lefty-swinging Jarren Duran (who would probably cost too much to consider anyway) and Cedric Mullins (who has been in a deep slump since the end of April). It leaves three interesting names: Luis Robert Jr., Harrison Bader and Dane Myers. Robert, you know. He hit 38 homers in 2023 and has been terrible ever since. He has been hot lately, and there's a school of thought that a change of scenery would reinvigorate him. If the Mets acquired him, it would be because they want him in center field most days, which would put McNeil at second and leave third base to the trio of Baty, Mauricio and Vientos. There'd be more protection in case one or more of those young players struggled. Advertisement Despite the recent struggles, Robert would require a real return. The closest comparison I can find for him is the Milwaukee Brewers' 2014 trade for Gerardo Parra, which cost the Brewers a recent first-round pick (No. 38 Mitch Haniger) and a starter having a breakthrough year in A-ball en route to being a fringe top-100 prospect (Anthony Banda). The Mets would not want to give up that much. Bader, you know. He was in Queens last year, and his season turned disappointing in part because he didn't hit left-handed pitching as well as he has over his career. He's had a nice year with the Minnesota Twins and an especially hot July. A good comp for a Bader trade is either the Mets' trading Tommy Pham away in 2023 (for Jeremy Rodriguez, whom FanGraphs viewed as a top-100 prospect within a year) or the New York Yankees' trade for Andrew Benintendi in 2022, when a recent first-round pick (No. 38 again) was the key piece going to the Kansas City Royals. Myers, you might not know. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal mentioned him briefly last week. He's a 29-year-old with the Miami Marlins whose defensive metrics grade out well; he has the same number of outs above average as Tyrone Taylor in fewer innings, though he's behind in defensive runs saved. And Myers has hit lefties very well: an .866 OPS for his career, and an .866 OPS this season. Myers is basically having the season the Mets expected out of Taylor, and in that regard, it's not a given he'll outperform him the rest of the way. Myers would come with four additional years of team control, so the Marlins do not need to move him. But he's 29, and Miami has a center-field prospect waiting. I don't have a good comp for a Myers trade. The closest I can come up with is when the Chicago White Sox traded catcher Reese McGuire with three more years of team control to the Red Sox, though for veteran reliever Jake Diekman. A Myers trade would probably include a fringe top-20 prospect in the organization as the headliner, if I'm speculating. Advertisement You wouldn't have known it from this weekend in San Francisco (at least for the first 26 innings), but think back to last year's National League Championship Series. What haunted the Mets' bullpen more than anything? Walks. The bullpen entered Sunday with a 9.3 percent walk rate, the 14th highest in baseball. That's not too bad, right? Well, unfortunately, Max Kranick and his 3.4 percent walk rate won't be part of the calculation. Let's look at six key relievers and their walk rates: (For what it's worth, Brooks Raley has walked two of 14 batters faced this season. His walk rate with the Mets in his last full season in 2023 was 10.6 percent.) That 11.0 percent combined walk rate would be the second-highest in the league. So, what would really help the Mets' pen would be a late-game arm who is stingy with free passes. And the three players who stick out the most in that regard are Minnesota's Griffin Jax (6.8 percent walk rate) and Pittsburgh Pirates teammates David Bednar (6.8 percent) and Dennis Santana (6.0 percent). Jax's relatively low walk rate stands out because he doesn't throw many pitches in the strike zone. He throws fewer than half his pitches in the strike zone (similar to, say, Reed Garrett) while generating an incredible amount of chase on his slider and changeup. (He has the fourth-best chase rate in baseball.) The best comp for a Jax deal is probably Cleveland's deal for Andrew Miller in 2016, which cost it two top-100 prospects (and two other pitchers who made the big leagues). Bednar, a two-time All-Star, has returned to form after being sent down back in April. He relies on his 97 mph four-seamer as well as a curveball and splitter; the curve would be a different look for the bullpen, as almost no one else throws it. Advertisement The best comp for a Bednar deal is another one Pittsburgh made: sending Mark Melancon to the Washington Nationals in 2016 and getting Felipe Vázquez back. Vázquez became an All-Star closer before sexual assault charges ended his major-league career. The difference between Santana and Jax is that Santana still throws a fastball a fair amount of the time, and he throws it in the zone. Santana generates chase (the 13th most in baseball) with his slider. Santana has been especially tough against left-handed hitters, holding them to five hits in 57 at-bats — none of them for extra bases. Santana doesn't strike out hitters the way Jax and Bednar do. Santana could compare to an earlier Pirates trade, when they sent reliever Richard Rodriguez to the Atlanta Braves in 2021 for a young starter in Bryse Wilson. I'd trade for 1999 Shawon Dunston and 2015 Addison Reed. No, I'd basically make these moves in tandem. If the Mets prioritize Robert in center field, they can make a smaller move for the pen with Santana. If they really want Jax, they can do something smaller for Myers in center. If they want to take the middle road, Bader and Bednar work. The Mets finished a sweep of the San Francisco Giants on Sunday to push their winning streak to seven. At 62-44, New York leads the National League East by 1 1/2 games over the Philadelphia Phillies and is within a half-game of the Chicago Cubs and Brewers for the best record in the National League. The San Diego Padres came back over the weekend to split a four-game series in St. Louis and salvage a 5-5 trip to start the second half. San Diego is 57-49 and owns the final NL wild card, one game ahead of the Cincinnati Reds. The Giants, as you may have deduced from above, were swept by the Mets. San Francisco dropped to 54-52 and is now three games behind San Diego for that last wild card. The Pirates come to the Bay for three games before the Giants head east. Advertisement at San Diego RHP Frankie Montas (3-1, 4.62 ERA) vs. RHP Dylan Cease (3-10, 4.59 ERA) LHP Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19) vs. RHP Yu Darvish (0-3, 9.18) RHP Clay Holmes (9-5, 3.40) vs. RHP Nick Pivetta (10-3, 2.81) vs. San Francisco LHP David Peterson (7-4, 2.83) vs. LHP Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.93) RHP Kodai Senga (7-3, 2.00) vs. RHP Carson Seymour (0-0, 3.00) RHP Frankie Montas vs. TBD Red = 60-day IL Orange = 15-day IL Blue = 10-day IL • Paul Blackburn should be back within a week, likely in the bullpen. The Mets don't need a sixth starter again until late August. • Tylor Megill might be back that final week of August to be that sixth starter. Megill should start a rehab assignment soon. • Jose Siri still hasn't restarted a running program, but the Mets still think he should be back at some point this season. Triple A: Syracuse at Buffalo (Toronto Blue Jays) Double A: Binghamton vs. Harrisburg (Washington) High A: Brooklyn vs. Jersey Shore (Philadelphia) Low A: St. Lucie at Jupiter (Miami) • Even after adding Gregory Soto, the Mets should add a setup man • Our trade deadline mailbag answers questions about Clay Holmes, Mark Vientos and more • An overview of the Mets' needs and possible solutions • Intel on how the Mets feel about center field; intel on how others think they'll behave in the pitcher markets • It was a big week for Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty • The Mets should care about every little upgrade • The Athletic's trade deadline big board So, after I found last week's sci-fi novel (Ray Nayler's 'The Mountain in the Sea') lacking a little in the cheap thrills department, I read Crichton's 'Sphere.' It was basically the opposite of Nayler's book: a lot of propulsive plot, though with less currency behind it (and a bit of an anticlimactic ending). Thus concludes my mid-summer interlude into science fiction. The Dunston trade in 1999 worked out. But one for reliever Billy Taylor did not. Which two relievers did the Mets send to the Athletics in return for Taylor? I'll reply to the correct answer in the comments. (Photo of Jeff McNeil: Ishika Samant / Getty Images)
New York Times
7 days ago
- Sport
- New York Times
What we're hearing about the Mets' deadline plans in the bullpen and center field
NEW YORK – With just over a week to go before the trade deadline, here's what we're hearing about the Mets. President of baseball operations David Stearns referred to 'reinforcements,' plural, on Monday, and another team source suggested the Mets may take more of a quantity approach to supplement their bullpen this deadline. That fits Stearns' M.O.: While in Milwaukee, the biggest bullpen additions he made were Jeremy Jeffress (2017), Anthony Swarzak (2017) and Joakim Soria (2018). And of course, he traded away Josh Hader (getting Taylor Rogers back) when the Brewers led their division in 2022. Advertisement Last year with the Mets, Stearns added four relievers in July: Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Huascar Brazobán and Tyler Zuber. So while the Mets aren't ruling out a significant late-game addition, don't be surprised if they instead spread their assets around to acquire multiple arms rather than concentrating on one bigger, shutdown set-up man for Edwin Díaz. The Mets' preference would be for one of those arms to be left-handed. In a pinch, a reverse-split righty like Arizona's Shelby Miller or Pittsburgh's Dennis Santana could also work for that role. Adding two or even three arms would give the Mets cover in the event of an injury to their current bullpen core. And while it's customary to plan ahead, thinking of an eight-man 'postseason bullpen,' the Mets would ideally have an expanded pool of 10-plus relievers to choose from in October, both to optimize their bullpen's matchups against a specific opponent and to keep some of the middle-relief options fresher through four potential postseason rounds. Stearns mentioned the possibility of calling up a Triple-A starter to help out in the bullpen later in the season. Of the Triple-A trio of Brandon Sproat, Nolan McLean and Blade Tidwell, Tidwell might have the clearest path to a relief role this season. Tidwell's stuff grades out very well in analytical models, and he's actually been better in the first inning this season at Syracuse than either Sproat or McLean. It doesn't hurt, either, that unlike his peers, Tidwell is already on the 40-man roster. League sources describe the Mets as active in the market for center fielders while adding that New York is not behaving as if it views upgrading the position as a necessity. At the least, it appears the Mets are taking a little bit more time to figure out their motivation level. Such a stance echoes Stearns' comments Monday regarding the position. Stearns acknowledged center field is 'the one position where we haven't gotten the level of production we anticipated coming into the year.' But that doesn't mean he's hell-bent on finding an external solution. Advertisement 'For me, the bar to improve center field has probably risen over the past two weeks,' Stearns said, 'because of Jeff (McNeil)'s comfort level and the secondary skills that Tyrone (Taylor) can provide. 'I'm certain we're going to be engaged, but we've got to clear the bar.' In other words, the Mets would have to find something better than what they already have. The combination of Taylor and McNeil gives the Mets a decent floor. Taylor is a superb defender. Rival scouts say McNeil has impressed them defensively. McNeil's defensive metrics have improved over the last couple of weeks. 'He's instinctual and has just gone out there basically and been a baseball player,' outfield coach Antoan Richardson said. 'It's him understanding his limits and where his strengths are.' Offensively, the value from the duo depends on playing time. Since McNeil's first appearance in center field on April 26, the Mets have received a .671 OPS from the position, which is 17th in MLB, and a 91 wRC+, which is 15th (eight clubs boast a wRC+ from center field above 110). So their offensive production checks in right around league average for the spot, which is primarily a defensive position. Taylor drags down the offensive numbers. Through 280 plate appearances, Taylor is slashing just .211/.264/.309 with two home runs. Stearns is the only president of baseball operations Taylor has ever played for. Dating back to their shared time with the Brewers, Taylor typically operated as a fourth or fifth outfielder, yet always accumulated a healthy amount of playing time. An acquisition at the trade deadline would demote him to much more of a bench role. 'I don't think about it at all, and I just go about it as, stay in the present and whatever happens, happens,' Taylor said. 'I wasn't always like that, but I had to learn to be that way.' Advertisement McNeil has started in center field three out of the last four games, including on both Monday and Tuesday (it was just the second time he drew back-to-back starts at the position this season). Over the last 23 games, McNeil has made 10 starts in center field. As a center fielder, McNeil owns a .919 OPS. His ability to hit lefties (.849 OPS) makes it harder for Taylor to crack the lineup. Asked if he'd be comfortable with McNeil as the everyday center fielder, Stearns said he liked the current distribution of playing time. Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that the team will be vigilant in not overworking McNeil, who's starting most days at second base when not in center. 'We have to take care of him, as well,' the manager said. Can McNeil handle a continued increase in workload at center field? Is their production from McNeil and Taylor better than what players in the trade market, such as Cedric Mullins (Baltimore Orioles) and Luis Robert Jr. (Chicago White Sox), can provide? These are the questions the Mets must assess. Unless the Boston Red Sox dangle their outfielders, rival scouts say Robert represents the highest upside in the market at center field because he is 27 years old and just two seasons removed from hitting 38 home runs. Despite a promising start to July (.364 batting average in 10 games), Robert's overall numbers for this season are below average: .206 batting average, .636 OPS, 10 home runs in 323 plate appearances. Given the concerns over Robert's health and production, coupled with the depth of the Mets' farm system, New York shouldn't have to part with their best prospects in order to acquire Robert. For the Mets, league sources speculatively suggested the cost for Robert may involve multiple prospects in the back end of the club's top 20. Is that too much for the Mets' taste? Whether they view Robert — and the cost to get him — as an upgrade over their current situation at the position remains unknown. Brett Baty's production is one of the main reasons why the Mets feel comfortable with what they have at third base. Mets officials view him as above-average defensively. Offensively, he carried a 108 OPS+ (100 is league average) into Tuesday's game. Since the Mets recalled him on May 7 (197 plate appearances), Baty owns a .765 OPS. In that same span, Baty's figure is better than Pete Alonso's (.749) and Francisco Lindor's (.713). Advertisement In the recent past, the Mets have been able to flex their financial muscles around the deadline, by either paying down what's owed a player to bring back better prospects (the Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Eduardo Escobar deals in 2023) or by taking back all of what's owed a player to limit their prospect costs going the other way (the Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek trades last year). Stearns doesn't see the same opportunity to wield that advantage this year. 'If anything, I've gotten the opposite from certain teams,' Stearns said. 'Some sellers would be more open to paying down a player to get better prospect return than having other teams take the money.' Multiple scouts from different organizations this week raved about A.J. Ewing – the type of mid-tier prospect the Mets lacked in their system a few years ago. One American League team recently sent a scout to High-A Brooklyn to specifically evaluate Ewing, league sources said. Ewing, a fourth-round pick in 2023, slashed .400/.500/.600 the first month of the season in Single-A St. Lucie and has run a .400 on-base percentage for High-A Brooklyn over close to 300 plate appearances. Drafted as a shortstop, Ewing has primarily played center for the Cyclones. Jacob Reimer is another hitter in the Ewing mold — a good prospect outside the club's consensus top 10 — that has drawn the attention of scouts this year. (Incidentally, Reimer was also a fourth-round pick out of high school, in 2022.) Reimer has 38 extra-base hits in 81 games this season, split between Brooklyn and Double-A Binghamton.
New York Times
22-07-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Mets trade deadline overview: Where and how can New York upgrade?
NEW YORK — Now with fewer than 10 days before the trade deadline, David Stearns and the Mets have provided some clarity about their potential direction. There are four main areas the Mets could address between now and July 31: the bullpen, the rotation, center field and third base. Stearns addressed all of those areas Monday. So let's run through how Stearns views his roster publicly and the potential options on the trade market for improvement. Advertisement We'll break the positions down into big splashes, smaller splashes, likelier targets and under-the-radar names, even though Stearns was against that metaphor Monday. 'I try not to look at it as the size of the splash. That can get a little dangerous this time of year,' he said. 'We try to look at how good the player coming back is and how that particular player fits the team needs.' One didn't need to read between the lines with Stearns on Monday. He made it abundantly clear the Mets will be adding to their relief corps. 'We will be active (in the bullpen),' Stearns said, alluding to the series of injuries the Mets have suffered there. 'Providing our group reinforcements there would be great.' Note the plural. Barring injury, the Mets have six quality candidates for a postseason bullpen: Edwin Díaz, Reed Garrett, Huascar Brazobán, Brooks Raley, Ryne Stanek and José Buttó. That group could conceivably be supplemented by anyone who falls out of the starting rotation or, as The Athletic reported earlier Monday, by Triple-A starters converted into relievers. But there should be room for two additions, one of whom is adept at handling left-handed hitters. The big splash: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland The lights-out closer would be the best reliever moved at the deadline since at least 2016, when Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller were both dealt. Clase comes with three years of additional inexpensive team control (at $26 million total), and the Mets could acquire him as insurance in case Díaz opts out and seeks a bigger payday elsewhere. Still a splash: Griffin Jax, Minnesota A less familiar name from the AL Central, Jax has quietly been one of the game's best relievers since breaking out as a 27-year-old in 2022. Like Clase, he's under longer team control (through 2027). Since the start of last season, Jax is tied with Josh Hader for the fifth-best strikeout rate in baseball (37.9 percent), just ahead of Díaz. Jax does that without walking many batters; his walk rate is less than half that of the Mets' bullpen. Jax primarily uses a high-80s slider and low-90s changeup that each generate a ton of chase. Pairing him with Díaz would shorten games considerably. Worth mentioning: Danny Coulombe, Minnesota Another Twin, Coulombe is likely the best lefty reliever who will be moved by July 31. His ERA is below 1.00, his FIP below 2.00 and his strikeout and walk rates are both better than the league average. Since the start of 2023, only 12 relievers have held lefties to a lower OPS than Coulombe's .509. Advertisement An under-the-radar target: Shelby Miller, Arizona One of those relievers is the righty Miller, who has held lefties to a .465 OPS since he added a splitter to his arsenal in 2023. Although on the IL with a right forearm strain, Miller is slated to return this week for the Diamondbacks, where he's served as the closer since injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez earlier in the season. One thing has become clear: The Mets are not going to add depth to their starting rotation. Now that they've gotten some pitchers back, with others on the way from either the IL (injured list) or the IL (International League), New York isn't looking to add an arm just to add an arm. If the Mets are going to add a starter, it would be one they'd want to start a playoff game, likely alongside a postseason rotation of Sean Manaea, Kodai Senga and David Peterson. 'I still think (a No. 1 starter) is really valuable,' Stearns said. 'You'd always like to have the horse at the front of the rotation. But it's not the only way to build a rotation, it's not the only way to win a playoff series, it's not the only way to win a World Series. 'I think we have multiple pitchers on our staff right now who can lead a staff into a playoff series. I'm confident with that, I'm comfortable with that.' In other words, this is not a top priority for the Mets. The big splash: Joe Ryan, Minnesota In a weak market for top-of-the-rotation arms, Ryan stands out as the type of pitcher you can push out there in Game 1 of a postseason series — and he's controlled through 2027. That makes Minnesota understandably loath to trade him, and the return would have to be significant. For the Mets, that would likely mean consolidating multiple arms in the majors or high-minors for Ryan. A familiar target: Seth Lugo, Kansas City Advertisement After years pining for the opportunity to start, Lugo left the Mets following the 2022 season and has been one of the game's better starters in San Diego and Kansas City since, finishing second in the AL Cy Young balloting a season ago. While Lugo's ERA remains excellent this year, his peripheral numbers are not as strong. His home run rate has doubled from last year, and he's benefited from a lower batting average on balls in play and a very good strand rate — things that tend to regress over time. Nevertheless, Lugo would likely represent an upgrade over Clay Holmes or Frankie Montas in the back of the rotation. Worth mentioning: Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, Arizona Gallen and Kelly were the driving forces behind Arizona's surprising push to the World Series in 2023. If the Diamondbacks, who entered Monday at 50-50, decided to sell either of the impending free agents, they'd qualify as postseason starters for most any team. While the bigger name, Gallen has had a rougher season, with an ERA over five and peripheral numbers that suggest that's about right. Kelly is older and with less of a standout track record, but he's been a solid second or third starter for several years. The righty generates a lot of swing-and-miss with his outstanding changeup. Stearns explicitly acknowledged center field as 'the one position where we haven't gotten the level of production we anticipated coming into the year.' But that doesn't mean he's hell-bent on finding an external solution. 'For me, the bar to improve center field has probably risen over the past two weeks,' Stearns said, 'because of Jeff (McNeil)'s comfort level and the secondary skills that Tyrone (Taylor) can provide. 'I'm certain we're going to be engaged, but we've got to clear the bar.' The big splash: Jarren Duran, Boston Advertisement Duran doesn't even play center, and he's on a team likely to buy at the deadline. So why's he on this list? Because the Red Sox have a surplus of outfielders — one only exacerbated by Ceddanne Rafaela's recent offensive explosion — and because Duran is miscast in left field. His defensive numbers were far better in center last season, and he brings a high ceiling, as shown by his top-10 MVP finish last season. His offensive numbers have taken an unsurprising step back, but Duran is still solidly above league average at a position with very few two-way contributors. He's under team control through 2028, so it would take a fair amount to get him — probably including a major-league piece. First things first… JARREN. — Red Sox (@RedSox) July 21, 2025 Still a splash: Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox Since returning from the injured list in early July, Robert has helped reestablish some semblance of trade value, posting an OPS north of 1.000 in nine games. Look, when you have the kind of season Robert did as a 25-year-old in 2023 — an .857 OPS and 38 homers while playing a solid center — teams will look for any reason to give you another shot. Robert's defense in center is average to slightly above, and so he owns a reasonable floor as an everyday player, with the chance to be much more. Worth mentioning: Cedric Mullins, Baltimore Following a scorching start to the season, Mullins has been in an extended slump. Since the end of April, his average is under .200 and his OPS under .600. Furthermore, his typically stout center-field defense has been dinged by advanced metrics all season. At the moment, he looks less like an upgrade than he had for much of the year. Stearns explicitly said he expects the Mets' answer at third base this season to come from within. New York has been cycling through Mark Vientos, Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio pretty regularly at the position of late, and each offers a compelling reason for more of an everyday opportunity. Vientos was an integral part of last season's turnaround. Baty stayed hot Monday with a two-run homer, and he's raised his OPS above .700 (and above the league average) with consistently improving glovework. Mauricio has looked comfortable at third and provided some pop, especially against right-handed pitching. Advertisement So unless that's all posturing or something changes significantly in the next 10 days, the list here is more of a thought exercise. The big splash: Eugenio Suárez, Arizona Suárez is likely to be the best bat moved between now and the deadline. He's smashed 36 home runs already this season — his most since 2019 — and has been red-hot basically since the middle of last season. He can hold his own at third base, and he'd provide clarity at a position of flux and another middle-of-the-order masher. Put Suárez in the lineup, and the Mets' top five hitters might all hit 30-plus homers. The Mets have never had even three 30-homer hitters. A likelier target: Willi Castro, Minnesota An All-Star last year, the do-everything Castro is having his best season this year, hitting about 20 percent better than the league average while playing every position on the field except catcher. Acquiring Castro would only further Carlos Mendoza's day-to-day flexibility. The switch hitter has been platoon-neutral across his career but is mashing lefties this season — a particular benefit if he joins a mix with Baty and Mauricio, who are better versus right-handed pitching. Castro can start at second on days McNeil is in center. He can play the corner outfield if you want to give a DH day to Juan Soto or Brandon Nimmo. He can play third on a more regular basis if he's the best option there. (The downside is that third base has been arguably Castro's worst defensive position this year.) An under-the-radar target: Yoán Moncada, Los Angeles Angels Moncada represents much more of a boom-or-bust option. When healthy, he's been a solid, above-average hitter capable of a double-digit walk rate and legitimate power. The problem is how rarely Moncada has been healthy. Since the start of 2023, he's played just 142 games. (Top photo of Emmanuel Clase: Griffin Quinn / Getty Images)
